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Post by cully on May 28, 2006 15:54:25 GMT
Setting up this thread as a place to share tips on bets which the forum members think are good value and should be shared with the forum. This weekend Bandage recommended Wexford at 11/4 to beat Meath. easy money. hopefully with all our shared knowledge we can make some cash.
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Post by bandage on May 31, 2006 14:22:00 GMT
This week I'm going for a GAA championship acculumulator:
Dublin to win in Longford.
Laois to win at home to Carlow.
Down to win in Donegal.
Tipperary to beat Waterford in Cork.
Dublin should be far too strong for Longford though I'm not that impressed with the starting XV they named - it gives hope to anyone else left in Leinster.
Carlow are improving under Liam Hayes and in the 2 Walshes have 2 of the best midifelders in Ireland but Laois are equally as strong there, have home advantage and more scoring threats.
The next one is the hardest to call I think. Down have had some great underage teams recently, minor champions and U-21 runners up last year but have often failed to gel into a good senior outfit - much like Limerick in hurling you could say - and they struggled over Cavan in the preliminary round. Donegal didn't Winter well with squad defections and internal rows though they got to the Division 2 final. Devenney has rejoined the panel but I take Down to have a little too much class for them.
I had initially tipped (excuse the pun) Waterford in Munster but that was before their injury and suspension troubles - think they're missing 2 of their most influential players in Ken McGrath and Eoin Kelly. Added to this the Tipperary Eoin Kelly was on fire the last day, the team as a whole have the Limerick victory behind them and the last time they met in the championship in 2004 Kelly scored 2-8. I think Tipp will beat them by 4 or 5 points.
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Post by iamthelaw on May 31, 2006 14:36:21 GMT
Dublin to win in Longford. Laois to win at home to Carlow. Down to win in Donegal. Tipperary to beat Waterford. Dublin are 14-1 on, Laois 7-1 on, Down 11-10 on, Tipp 15-8 on (all paddypower); I think that means €35.84 return (including your stake) on a €10 bet, or just over 5-2 against. |
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Post by bandage on May 31, 2006 14:41:43 GMT
Dublin to win in Longford. Laois to win at home to Carlow. Down to win in Donegal. Tipperary to beat Waterford. Dublin are 14-1 on, Laois 7-1 on, Down 11-10 on, Tipp 15-8 on (all paddypower); I think that means €35.84 return (including your stake) on a €10 bet, or just over 5-2 against. Yes shortish enough odds but I think it's a decent bet. Will be putting €50 (might even consider €100) on it anyway. Not having internet betting in work has left me heading to the bookies a lot more lately. I must say the thrill of collecting in person beats clicking in to see an extra few quid on your computer screen. |
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imposter
Peter Schmeichel
I hate Cork
Posts: 19
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Post by imposter on May 31, 2006 14:44:40 GMT
theres no point in including Laois and Dublin in the accumulator, the risk versus reward is pointless.
just do an accumulator on Down and Tipp maybe. Although i think Down at even money is shit value.
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imposter
Peter Schmeichel
I hate Cork
Posts: 19
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Post by imposter on May 31, 2006 14:51:04 GMT
Possible bets for tonite..
Switzerland v Italy 19.45
1. Italy to win by 1 clear goal - 14/5.
2. Half time/full time; Switzerland/Italy - 25/1
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Post by iamthelaw on May 31, 2006 14:51:51 GMT
theres no point in including Laois and Dublin in the accumulator, the risk versus reward is pointless. Well if my maths is correct, including Laois & Dublin means an extra €6.56 return in the end for every €10 you bet. Not so hot on the Down odds either, Ulster has thrown up bigger surprises already than Donegal beating Down. But worth thinking about. |
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Post by bandage on May 31, 2006 14:56:13 GMT
Possible bets for tonite.. Switzerland v Italy 19.45 1. Italy to win by 1 clear goal - 14/5. 2. Half time/full time; Switzerland/Italy - 25/1 I find friendlies impossible to bet on - anything could happen in them really. |
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Post by steamboatsam on May 31, 2006 15:05:31 GMT
Dublin are 14-1 on, Laois 7-1 on, Down 11-10 on, Tipp 15-8 on (all paddypower); I think that means €35.84 return (including your stake) on a €10 bet, or just over 5-2 against. Yes shortish enough odds but I think it's a decent bet. Will be putting €50 (might even consider €100) on it anyway. Not having internet betting in work has left me heading to the bookies a lot more lately. I must say the thrill of collecting in person beats clicking in to see an extra few quid on your computer screen. one of the golden rules of betting is to always look for value - in this case there is none whereas with Wex/Meath there was plenty. i'll give you a loan of my "Ultimate Guide to Betting on Sport" if you like |
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Post by bandage on May 31, 2006 15:08:19 GMT
Yes shortish enough odds but I think it's a decent bet. Will be putting €50 (might even consider €100) on it anyway. Not having internet betting in work has left me heading to the bookies a lot more lately. I must say the thrill of collecting in person beats clicking in to see an extra few quid on your computer screen. one of the golden rules of betting is to always look for value - in this case there is none whereas with Wex/Meath there was plenty. i'll give you a loan of my "Ultimate Guide to Betting on Sport" if you like I accept your point but I personally think these 4 results are highly likely. Therefore, I'm going to make up for a slight lack of value by betting a higher outlay initially. |
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Post by therock67 on May 31, 2006 15:13:31 GMT
Agree with steamboat on this one - not enough value in those bets to take on. I have some pretty hot money at the moment that I'm looking to bet with. Won 234 european currencies on the Wexford Offaly double last weekend. Then I brought three stooges to a table quiz where the raffle was fixed so I won an ipod with a fiver out of those winnings. Last night I backed davenport in the 8:40 at Sandown at 4/1 and won 60 euro. The last bet I had as well was on the horses a couple of weeks ago and that horse came second at 20/1 each way.
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imposter
Peter Schmeichel
I hate Cork
Posts: 19
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Post by imposter on May 31, 2006 15:20:25 GMT
There is a calculator on paddypower.com,
using the double of down and tipp you get €52ish back on a tenner bet;
include dublin and laois and it goes to €64ish back on a tenner...an increase of €12.
but i agree with steamboat, betting big at short odds is in most occasions betting suicide.
for instance, laois have not had a game, and carlow blew wicklow (who are shyte) off the pitch. i'd sooner back carlow on the handicap at even money. Laois are no value at 1/7.
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imposter
Peter Schmeichel
I hate Cork
Posts: 19
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Post by imposter on May 31, 2006 15:26:52 GMT
sorry one and all, i misread the tipp odds..its 8/15, which makes it a really low value bet anyway you look at it. Waterford are well capable of turning over tipp.
with all 4 choices - 25.84 +10 stake
with tipp and down - 19.27 +10 stake
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Post by therock67 on May 31, 2006 15:36:08 GMT
but i agree with steamboat, betting big at short odds is in most occasions betting suicide. that is the most important statement on this thread. Betting 50 or 100 euro is only a reasonable bet on this accumulator if bandage had put the same money on wexford the weekend before. Don't look at returns when deciding how much to put on, look at value. If bandage thought Wexford offered more value last week then that's where heshould have put the 50 or 100, not on this one where he concedes he is using a higher outlay because it offers less value. Suicide. |
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Post by bandage on May 31, 2006 15:47:58 GMT
but i agree with steamboat, betting big at short odds is in most occasions betting suicide. that is the most important statement on this thread. Betting 50 or 100 euro is only a reasonable bet on this accumulator if bandage had put the same money on wexford the weekend before. Don't look at returns when deciding how much to put on, look at value. If bandage thought Wexford offered more value last week then that's where heshould have put the 50 or 100, not on this one where he concedes he is using a higher outlay because it offers less value. Suicide. Using the Wexford money - that was a pure value bet and had been talked about here all last week - bookies must have thought Meath circa 1988 were playing us. Take all the points made here but still going to go with a sizeable bet on this because a) money's there to be spent; b) GAA is the sport I'm most knowledgable about and comfortable betting on and c) it'll give me added interest when sitting down to watch the games. |
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Post by therock67 on May 31, 2006 15:55:52 GMT
that is the most important statement on this thread. Betting 50 or 100 euro is only a reasonable bet on this accumulator if bandage had put the same money on wexford the weekend before. Don't look at returns when deciding how much to put on, look at value. If bandage thought Wexford offered more value last week then that's where heshould have put the 50 or 100, not on this one where he concedes he is using a higher outlay because it offers less value. Suicide. Using the Wexford money - that was a pure value bet and had been talked about here all last week - bookies must have thought Meath circa 1988 were playing us. Take all the points made here but still going to go with a sizeable bet on this because a) money's there to be spent; b) GAA is the sport I'm most knowledgable about and comfortable betting on and c) it'll give me added interest when sitting down to watch the games. It's fine to have a bet, but please God don't put more on it than you did on the Wexford bet. As you say the Wexford bet was pure value and discussed here all week. So that was the very time to put 50 euro on. Putting more money on a lesser value bet is gambling suicide and any punter worth their salt would advise strongly against it. Don't be distracted by the returns, look at the value. |
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Post by therock67 on May 31, 2006 17:31:14 GMT
For those of you who check this forum past half five - horse running at beverley at ten past eight called Everymanforhimself. 8/1 at the moment so each-way and take the price if you can. Same source as winner yesterday but obviously take this advice at your own risk.
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Post by timofte on May 31, 2006 21:25:35 GMT
Great tip there. Just watched the end of that race on racing post website. He came from nowhere to pip it by a head in the end. Pity didn't check the website earlier. Would have been a nice little earner. Hope you had a few quid on it yourself. Exalt for that tip!
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Post by therock67 on May 31, 2006 21:29:48 GMT
For those of you who check this forum past half five - horse running at beverley at ten past eight called Everymanforhimself. 8/1 at the moment so each-way and take the price if you can. Same source as winner yesterday but obviously take this advice at your own risk. I hope someone read this and got on because he won at 8/1. |
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imposter
Peter Schmeichel
I hate Cork
Posts: 19
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Post by imposter on Jun 1, 2006 9:32:28 GMT
Impressive tipping by the rock..and exhalt for that!
good old switzerland landed another fukn 1v1 draw..although their equaliser was a screamer.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 1, 2006 9:38:15 GMT
Great tip there. Just watched the end of that race on racing post website. He came from nowhere to pip it by a head in the end. Pity didn't check the website earlier. Would have been a nice little earner. Hope you had a few quid on it yourself. Exalt for that tip! I had ten euro each way on it so happy days. Another tip due this afternoon from same place - probably between 3 and 4. I'm cautious though because I'm on a silly streak at the moment and it has to end sometime. |
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Post by bandage on Jun 1, 2006 10:42:24 GMT
Great tip there. Just watched the end of that race on racing post website. He came from nowhere to pip it by a head in the end. Pity didn't check the website earlier. Would have been a nice little earner. Hope you had a few quid on it yourself. Exalt for that tip! I had ten euro each way on it so happy days. Another tip due this afternoon from same place - probably between 3 and 4. I'm cautious though because I'm on a silly streak at the moment and it has to end sometime. Is the race between 3 or 4 or the tip expected between those hours for an evening meet? If it's the former then any chance you could give us the tip before lunch so I can stick a few quid on it? |
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Post by therock67 on Jun 1, 2006 10:49:10 GMT
I think race is between 4 and 5 but tip not expected till between 3 and 4 so might have to rely on someone in HM1 putting money on for you.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 1, 2006 12:57:58 GMT
Cross the Line - Yarmouth 5 o'clock. Was 3/1 now 13/8. Same disclaimer as before as I've no idea who the horse is myself. Same source as last 2 days though.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 1, 2006 16:10:14 GMT
Cross the Line - Yarmouth 5 o'clock. Was 3/1 now 13/8. Same disclaimer as before as I've no idea who the horse is myself. Same source as last 2 days though. No luck. |
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