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Post by thepiedpiper on Jun 1, 2006 20:35:28 GMT
therock what do you think about sebia and monto to qualify from their group at 2/1. In their group are holland, argentina and ivory coast. i earlier put the following to qualify from their group which i now very much regret having read above.
Germany to qualify 1-16
Sweden """"""""""" 3-10
Serbia & Montenegro @ 2 - 1
Mexico @ 2 - 7
Brazil @ 1 - 25
Italy @ 1 - 5
South Korea @ 13 - 8
Ukraine @ 4 - 11
Total odds of 22/1. What you think was it folly?
i also stuck a fiver on a double of australia to qualify at 2/1 and argentina to win their group at 6/5,
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Post by bandage on Jun 2, 2006 8:30:00 GMT
Think Japan are 7/2 to come out of their group (Brazil, Croatia, Australia) - they played well the other night drawing 2-2 with Germany. I think that's good value? Over to the betting experts.
BTW I put €50 on the accumulator you critiqued the other day plus €15 on Alistair Cook at 5/1 being England and Wales' top first innings run scorer in the test starting today. KP favourite at 5/2 followed by Tres 7/2, Levi 4/1, Freddie 6/1, Colly 13/2.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 2, 2006 11:56:00 GMT
therock what do you think about sebia and monto to qualify from their group at 2/1. In their group are holland, argentina and ivory coast. i earlier put the following to qualify from their group which i now very much regret having read above. Germany to qualify 1-16 Sweden 3-10 Serbia & Montenegro @ 2 - 1 Mexico @ 2 - 7 Brazil @ 1 - 25 Italy @ 1 - 5 South Korea @ 13 - 8 Ukraine @ 4 - 11 Total odds of 22/1. What you think was it folly? i also stuck a fiver on a double of australia to qualify at 2/1 and argentina to win their group at 6/5, Interesting bets their PP. I wouldn't have picked many of them personally but then at 22/1 it is weighted to be an outside bet as opposed to a short odds accumulator. Serbia in particular might struggle to get out of their group: I don't rate Holland at all really but with them and the Ivory Coast in there with Argentina it will be very tough for Serbia to do anything. The problem with a bet of that size is that Serbia can scupper the whole thing for ya. |
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Post by thepiedpiper on Jun 2, 2006 16:46:15 GMT
therock what do you think about sebia and monto to qualify from their group at 2/1. In their group are holland, argentina and ivory coast. i earlier put the following to qualify from their group which i now very much regret having read above. Germany to qualify 1-16 Sweden 3-10 Serbia & Montenegro @ 2 - 1 Mexico @ 2 - 7 Brazil @ 1 - 25 Italy @ 1 - 5 South Korea @ 13 - 8 Ukraine @ 4 - 11 Total odds of 22/1. What you think was it folly? i also stuck a fiver on a double of australia to qualify at 2/1 and argentina to win their group at 6/5, Interesting bets their PP. I wouldn't have picked many of them personally but then at 22/1 it is weighted to be an outside bet as opposed to a short odds accumulator. Serbia in particular might struggle to get out of their group: I don't rate Holland at all really but with them and the Ivory Coast in there with Argentina it will be very tough for Serbia to do anything. The problem with a bet of that size is that Serbia can scupper the whole thing for ya. yeah high element of risk with serbia all right. they only conceeded 1 goal in qualifying though so will be hard to beat (similar to ireland italia 90). don't think i rate holland either |
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 2, 2006 18:29:36 GMT
(similar to ireland italia 90). yeah but three draws won't get serbia out of the group |
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 2, 2006 18:50:49 GMT
Germany to qualify 1-16 Sweden 3-10 Serbia 2-1 Mexico @ 2 - 7 Brazil @ 1 - 25 Italy @ 1 - 5 South Korea 13-8 Ukraine @ 4 - 11 Total odds 22-1 I wouldn't have picked many of them personally but then at 22/1 it is weighted to be an outside bet as opposed to a short odds accumulator. yeah but take out South Korea and Serbia and I think the total odds on the accumulator is 2-1; hardly good value for a bet with six elements. |
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 5, 2006 0:17:52 GMT
Alright here are my World Cup bets; expect to be shot down, but will hopefully start some beneficial debate for those yet to gamble.
Basically just looking to create an interest for myself in as many games as possible. I figure there'll be a few surprises in the group stages, but that the winners will come from the usual suspects.
To win outright:
€100 (on Betdaq; odds are decimal, hence the ">") split as follows:
€21 on Argentina at >9/1
€21 on Germany at >100/12
€19 on Italy at >10/1
€11 on Spain at 18/1
€28 on Brazil at >13/5
Basically if Brazil win, I get my money back, if any of the others win I double it. Don't rate Holland or Portugal and heart and head turn me against England.
Group results
€90, (with Betfair), split as follows:
€17.50 on Mexico to win Group D at 8/5
€15 on Sweden to win Group B at 21/10
€17 on the USA to qualify from Group E at 7/4
€15 on Australia to qualify from Group F at 21/10
€14 on the Ivory Coast to qualify from Group C at 12/5
€10 on Costa Rica to qualify from Group A at 9/2
So if any 2 of the 6 bets come through, I make my money back.
I think Holland, Portugal and England are over-rated, and the Ivory Coast, USA and Australia under-rated due to European snobbery. And I think Ecuador will fail like Bolivia in '94 from having to play at sea-level, and Costa Rica could also benefit from playing Germany in the opening game, when the Germans will be at their most nervous.
Finally, I found €10 in my Paddy Power account and stuck it on top goalscorer:
€6 on Toni at 20/1
€2 on Torres at 28/1
€2 on Pauleta at 28/1
I think top goalscorer is a bit of a lottery (apart from Ronaldo last time out, how many Golden Ball winners in the last 20 years would you have predicted?) but it's only €10, good odds, and will give me an interest in such games as Spain v Saudi Arabia and Portugal v Iran. Reasoning for picking these three is that all have been in good form (Pauleta in qualifying, Toni and Torres for their clubs), and Pauleta & Torres are in groups with weaker opposition, and a chance of making the semis, while Toni is with a team that have a very good chance of making the semis.
And just in case I'm wrong about all this, I plan to give up drinking for the next month or so (started this weekend), in which case I'll more than make my money back, & will come out healthier too. Win-win.
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Post by jimmyhillschin on Jun 5, 2006 10:04:31 GMT
I think an e/w top goalscorer bet on Toni is a wise choice. Paddy Power is paying 4 places on it @ 20/1.
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Post by bandage on Jun 5, 2006 13:07:00 GMT
I think an e/w top goalscorer bet on Toni is a wise choice. Paddy Power is paying 4 places on it @ 20/1. Going back to the value discussion last week - there seems to be decent value in that. Interesting bets from iamthelaw also - gonna sit down and really consider all the WC permutations later in the week when we know for definite who's fit, what starting XIs are likely to be etc. Down let me well down yesterday in that GAA accumulator - though they only went well down by a point Donegal deserved to win by far more. In that sense I didn't feel too well down. I guess you guys were right on the debate about value - I bow to your superior knowledge. Anybody can make one mistake - I won't be repeating it! |
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Post by thepiedpiper on Jun 5, 2006 15:58:19 GMT
Alright here are my World Cup bets; expect to be shot down, but will hopefully start some beneficial debate for those yet to gamble. Basically just looking to create an interest for myself in as many games as possible. I figure there'll be a few surprises in the group stages, but that the winners will come from the usual suspects. To win outright: €100 (on Betdaq; odds are decimal, hence the ">") split as follows: €21 on Argentina at >9/1 €21 on Germany at >100/12 €19 on Italy at >10/1 €11 on Spain at 18/1 €28 on Brazil at >13/5 Basically if Brazil win, I get my money back, if any of the others win I double it. Don't rate Holland or Portugal and heart and head turn me against England. That seems like a good bet all right. might go for that one myself |
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Post by therock67 on Jun 6, 2006 8:22:04 GMT
Very interesting bets there iamthelaw - think I'll have a proper read through them this evening with access to the betting sites but as thepiedpiper has pointed out the first part in particular looks very interesting with Brazil covering the other permutations.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 6, 2006 8:23:28 GMT
I wouldn't have picked many of them personally but then at 22/1 it is weighted to be an outside bet as opposed to a short odds accumulator. yeah but take out South Korea and Serbia and I think the total odds on the accumulator is 2-1; hardly good value for a bet with six elements. I agree with you on that. I'm not criticising the bet as such - more commenting on its structure. It's a mix of bankers and outsiders and as I say they're not countries I'd have chosen but at 22-1 you have to expect some risk. |
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Post by tommymoore on Jun 6, 2006 10:02:03 GMT
Your in trouble if Engerland win it Iamthelaw. €100 down the swanny...
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Post by timofte on Jun 6, 2006 10:21:32 GMT
Alright here are my World Cup bets; expect to be shot down, but will hopefully start some beneficial debate for those yet to gamble. Basically just looking to create an interest for myself in as many games as possible. I figure there'll be a few surprises in the group stages, but that the winners will come from the usual suspects. To win outright: €100 (on Betdaq; odds are decimal, hence the ">") split as follows: €21 on Argentina at >9/1 €21 on Germany at >100/12 €19 on Italy at >10/1 €11 on Spain at 18/1 €28 on Brazil at >13/5 Basically if Brazil win, I get my money back, if any of the others win I double it. Don't rate Holland or Portugal and heart and head turn me against England. Group results €90, (with Betfair), split as follows: €17.50 on Mexico to win Group D at 8/5 €15 on Sweden to win Group B at 21/10 €17 on the USA to qualify from Group E at 7/4 €15 on Australia to qualify from Group F at 21/10 €14 on the Ivory Coast to qualify from Group C at 12/5 €10 on Costa Rica to qualify from Group A at 9/2 So if any 2 of the 6 bets come through, I make my money back. I think Holland, Portugal and England are over-rated, and the Ivory Coast, USA and Australia under-rated due to European snobbery. And I think Ecuador will fail like Bolivia in '94 from having to play at sea-level, and Costa Rica could also benefit from playing Germany in the opening game, when the Germans will be at their most nervous. Finally, I found €10 in my Paddy Power account and stuck it on top goalscorer: €6 on Toni at 20/1 €2 on Torres at 28/1 €2 on Pauleta at 28/1 I think top goalscorer is a bit of a lottery (apart from Ronaldo last time out, how many Golden Ball winners in the last 20 years would you have predicted?) but it's only €10, good odds, and will give me an interest in such games as Spain v Saudi Arabia and Portugal v Iran. Reasoning for picking these three is that all have been in good form (Pauleta in qualifying, Toni and Torres for their clubs), and Pauleta & Torres are in groups with weaker opposition, and a chance of making the semis, while Toni is with a team that have a very good chance of making the semis. And just in case I'm wrong about all this, I plan to give up drinking for the next month or so (started this weekend), in which case I'll more than make my money back, & will come out healthier too. Win-win. I like your group results suggestions. I might go with somthing similar although I fear England will probably win group B. It might be an idea to put your selections in an accumulator style. I just checked it out on paddy power and a €1 Lucky 63 could give you a return of just shy of €5,000 if all six bets happen. The bet will cost you €63 as it is 63 lines consisting of 6 singles, 15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 fourfold accumulators, 6 fivefold accumulators, and 1 sixfold accumulator. A betting strategy like this will probably reduce your winnings/losses if only one or two selections come in but it might be a bit of fun and there is a nice big upside if most of the predictions work out. I am also impressed with your outright betting as the winner is unlikely to come from anywhere other than those you have included in your bet. I think its hard to see past Brazil and a strategy that gets you your money back if they win isn't bad although I think I will just put a few quid on them and leave it at that. Not great value so will focus most of my betting on individual matches and qualification from the groups. I think using a popular English bookie is a good move as prices are heavily weighted on England winning the world cup. We'll never hear the end of it if that actually happens and betting for them is definitely not an option I'm willing to take! Best of luck to all. Exalt iamthelaw DT |
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 6, 2006 10:24:32 GMT
Your in trouble if Engerland win it Iamthelaw. €100 down the swanny... Yep, but I have to take some risk. Even if I thought England were going to win it, I'd find it difficult to bet on them, but I don't think they're good value at shorter odds than Italy/Argentina. Even if I lose all my money, I hope I'll have had €200 worth of entertainment from it. And if I manage to stay off the drink as planned, it'll be just money I'd have wasted another way. Besides if England win, I'll have bigger costs than the €100 bet. Finding sufficient funds to emigrate will be the big problem (see the "what would you do if England won the World Cup?" thread) |
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Post by therock67 on Jun 6, 2006 10:32:33 GMT
Your in trouble if Engerland win it Iamthelaw. €100 down the swanny... Yep, but I have to take some risk. Even if I thought England were going to win it, I'd find it difficult to bet on them, but I don't think they're good value at shorter odds than Italy/Argentina. Even if I lose all my money, I hope I'll have had €200 worth of entertainment from it. And if I manage to stay off the drink as planned, it'll be just money I'd have wasted another way. Besides if England win, I'll have bigger costs than the €100 bet. Finding sufficient funds to emigrate will be the big problem (see the "what would you do if England won the World Cup?" thread) I think your first point there is very valid. A) There has to be some risk otherwise you'd cover all the permutations and you'd just be left with your winnings, the expense of the bet and all you're left with paying the bookie's margin for him. B) Have you considered laying England on betfair? C) Again value is a consideration. There is a disproportionate amount of money on England in bookies in these islands (even in Irish bookies there's a lot of money going on). I don't think England represent great value so they're one to avoid. |
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 6, 2006 10:43:13 GMT
B) Have you considered laying England on betfair? You mean instead of my initial bet? Thought about it, but would be laying at something like 6/1 I presume, effectively betting 60 to win 10. I don't see a new winner, so could probably combine laying England with a bet on that, and I don't think Brazil are good value at the odds offered, so maybe lay them a little? But at that stage it's getting so complicated I might as well stick with my initial bet. |
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Post by therock67 on Jun 6, 2006 10:54:06 GMT
B) Have you considered laying England on betfair? You mean instead of my initial bet? Thought about it, but would be laying at something like 6/1 I presume, effectively betting 60 to win 10. I don't see a new winner, so could probably combine laying England with a bet on that, and I don't think Brazil are good value at the odds offered, so maybe lay them a little? But at that stage it's getting so complicated I might as well stick with my initial bet. Yeah I was hoping you'd gone through all the permutations like backing the teams you mentioned above or laying everyone else and you had a mathematical result. It's probably too complicated to worry about and you're as well sticking to backing the other teams I reckon. |
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Post by timofte on Jun 11, 2006 23:34:38 GMT
This is the bet I went for in the end:
The following teams to qualify from their groups as a sixfold accumulator:
Sweden
Argentina
Mexico
Italy
France
Spain
They were all odds on so together they only give me a little better than 2 to 1, but I put €50 on it. Worth a bet I thought but now Sweden look like they could be the one to slip up for me. All going well though and its a nice 100 bucks in the skyrocket.
I also have to give myself a pat on the back for a trebble I put on today. Holland, Mexico and Portugal all came in for me. Worked out around 3 to 1 and I only threw a tenner on it but nice nonetheless. I think I'm going to play a few more trebbles over the next week and see how I get on. My trebble for tomorrow is:
Australia
Czech Republic
Italy
I know I'm going for the favourites again but am a little less confident with this one as I could see a draw in either of the first two games but I don't like backing draws so am sticking with this selection. You get 6 to 1 for that trebble so fingers crossed. Another tenner on that one.
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 12, 2006 7:59:34 GMT
Have put
Japan
USA
Italy
For today at just over 17-1!Worth a fiver.
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Post by bandage on Jun 12, 2006 12:43:48 GMT
Lost €70 over the weekend.
€20 on Poland.
€20 treble; England, Sweden, Argentina.
€10 Larsson first goalscorer.
€20 treble; Draw, Mexico, Portugal.
Today I've gone for a €20 outsider double; Japan and USA (really think USA will qualify from this group) as well as €10 on Italy to beat Ghana by 2 goals.
Dodgy enough bets I must say.
Having predicted almost exactly how the Wexford-Offaly game would turn out in my preview last week (self-praise is no praise at all Bandage!) I was gutted I didn't back Wexford at 3/1 to win by between 1 and 3 points. We even discussed this at length on the way down to the game. Balls.
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 12, 2006 15:26:15 GMT
Hard lines Bandage, was in the same boat myself. Had japan,usa and italy in a trble!Gutted
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briantinnion
Ray Houghton
I love Sarah-Louise Platt
Posts: 90
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Post by briantinnion on Jun 12, 2006 15:45:51 GMT
Took a €50 hit on Sweden myself (€25 to win with handicap and €25 on ht/ft) but think everyone took a hit on them over the weekend (my mate had his entire Betfair balance on them-€500!!), shocking display, turns out they really are as bad as they were at Landsdown in March. Steadied the ship with wins on Wexford and Portugal though.
Today I fancy unders in the USA Czech game, not sure why though. Baros is out anyway. However ~BrianTinnions~ bet of the day is to back the Italians to beat Ghana, freely available on Betfair @ 1.71. I think the Italians will be glad to get back to their football after all the crap that has gone on over referees and I can see a decent display from them.
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Post by steamboatsam on Jun 12, 2006 15:52:36 GMT
Took a €50 hit on Sweden myself (€25 to win with handicap and €25 on ht/ft) but think everyone took a hit on them over the weekend (my mate had his entire Betfair balance on them-€500!!), shocking display, turns out they really are as bad as they were at Landsdown in March. Steadied the ship with wins on Wexford and Portugal though. Today I fancy unders in the USA Czech game, not sure why though. Baros is out anyway. However ~BrianTinnions~ bet of the day is to back the Italians to beat Ghana, freely available on Betfair @ 1.71. I think the Italians will be glad to get back to their football after all the crap that has gone on over referees and I can see a decent display from them. was trying to get a live bet on the Aussies @ 11/1 when they were 1 down but work matters intervened and by the time i got back to it they had equalised. fookin raging but still have a double with them winning and a draw in the Czech - USA game, which i think is a very tough one to call as its impossible to know how good/not the wooden planks are |
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briantinnion
Ray Houghton
I love Sarah-Louise Platt
Posts: 90
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Post by briantinnion on Jun 12, 2006 16:01:55 GMT
was trying to get a live bet on the Aussies @ 11/1 when they were 1 down but work matters intervened and by the time i got back to it they had equalised. fookin raging but still have a double with them winning and a draw in the Czech - USA game, which i think is a very tough one to call as its impossible to know how good/not the wooden planks are Yeah I think Czech-USA is impossible to call, we just don't see enough of the Yanks against quality opposition. The only decent opposition they've had recently has been against Germany in March and the Germans whipped them 4-1. Before that Mexico were the only decent team they faced on qualifying (won 2-0 at home and lost 2-1 away). They've beaten giants such as Latvia and Venezuela since the German mauling and they are 5th in the FIFA rankings though so that must mean they are brilliant  |
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