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Post by bandage on Jun 15, 2006 12:29:53 GMT
Another €40 quid gone yesterday because Tunisia's ineptitude fooked up my treble. Also had Torres for 1st goalscorer but wasn't disappointed with that as he was superb from start to finish and couldn't have done any better. Then had Podolski for first goalscorer at 5/1 - nearly broke the TV when he missed that sitter before half time.
Anyway, today it's a €20 treble on Ecuador, England and Paraguay at 9/1. I need the fooking cash. Thought Paraguay deserved something against England and news in the Sweden camp is that there's been rows all over the shop so I've taken the plunge.
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Post by timofte on Jun 16, 2006 2:27:14 GMT
Am only going for a double tomorrow as I can't bring myself to bet for England and they don't add anything to the bet anyway with there odds so low. Same strategy: Ecuador Sweden Only 3 to 1 so nothing too exciting. DT Worked out well although Sweden kept me waiting until the bitter end. England were shite today. Feel sorry for T&T, would have been great if they got something from that game. Treble for tomorrow is Argentina Holland Mexico at 3 to 1. Not great odds but should be a few good games. DT |
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 16, 2006 11:27:47 GMT
Going for
Argentina
Mexico
Portugal
@ 3-1
Decided to leave out the Dutch game as I think it could go either way.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 18, 2006 12:35:14 GMT
Backing Japan to beat Croatia today - 6.8 on befair.
Both Japan and Korea are 9/2 with Paddy Power - Japan are much better value IMO because they're better than Korea and France are better than Croatia. All 4 teams in the equation could use a win as well.
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Post by timofte on Jun 19, 2006 14:53:02 GMT
Not much luck with the bets over the last few days. There nearly a draw a day that messes with my daily treble. Had a tenner on Australia at 11 to 1 to beat Brazil which was worth a punt and I don't think Brazil were fully deserving of that 2-0 win.
A mate of mine has a grand on Brazil to win the WC at 3 to 1 and he's fairly shitting it at the moment! He's trying to win his grand back by the end of tournament to even things up. The crazy fucker was willing to put five hundred notes on Argentina the other day at 2 to 1 on. Looks like a sensible bet when you see the result but I think you need some nerve to bet big when the reward isn't very much.
Anyway enough of my mate. I had a fiver each-way on Padraig Harrington to win the US Open at 40 to 1 and it was looking like a real possibility for a good while. He ended up in fifth and unfortunately my each way only paid out for the first four places. Devastating!
Not quite sure where to bet from here. There's fuck all value that I can see at the moment. Will probably bet against England in the last 16 unless Rooney has a cracking performance against Sweden.
DT
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Post by iamthelaw on Jun 19, 2006 23:35:05 GMT
Not much luck with the bets over the last few days. There nearly a draw a day that messes with my daily treble. Had a tenner on Australia at 11 to 1 to beat Brazil which was worth a punt and I don't think Brazil were fully deserving of that 2-0 win. A mate of mine has a grand on Brazil to win the WC at 3 to 1 and he's fairly shitting it at the moment! He's trying to win his grand back by the end of tournament to even things up. The crazy fucker was willing to put five hundred notes on Argentina the other day at 2 to 1 on. Looks like a sensible bet when you see the result but I think you need some nerve to bet big when the reward isn't very much. Anyway enough of my mate. I had a fiver each-way on Padraig Harrington to win the US Open at 40 to 1 and it was looking like a real possibility for a good while. He ended up in fifth and unfortunately my each way only paid out for the first four places. Devastating! Not quite sure where to bet from here. There's fuck all value that I can see at the moment. Will probably bet against England in the last 16 unless Rooney has a cracking performance against Sweden. DT Have stuck a bit of money on Ecuador (5/2) and Ghana (5/1) to make the quarters. I've said before I think Ecuador are better than anything in Group B, and I think Ghana would take Brazil. And might not have to. You can get 2/1 against Ecuador winning their pool (ie win or draw with Germany). Or 2.9:1 on Sweden topping their pool. (All Betfair). Have money already on the latter from before the pool started, debating whether if I've seen enough of Ecuador sober to bet on them. |
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Post by bandage on Jun 20, 2006 8:06:31 GMT
Have money already on the latter from before the pool started, debating whether if I've seen enough of Ecuador sober to bet on them. Thought you were staying sober for the WC.  |
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Post by steamboatsam on Jun 20, 2006 8:31:04 GMT
Ecuador 7/1 to beat Germany looks outrageously good value today although its difficult to know how they'll approach this game seeing as their already through.
Starting to win back some of my earlier losses - Had Torres e/w for first goalscorer and Ukraine to be 2 - 0 up at half time (again ridiculous good value at 7/1). Also had Adriano first scorer on sunday.
Great odds on the quadruples this week but almost impossible to predict given that there are a number of nothing games.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 20, 2006 8:35:09 GMT
Some good betting there Samuel. Agree that bets will be difficult to call this week - I reckon there'll be a good few draws because some of the games are meaningless. It's a bit frustrating really how they've organised the tournament that there are so many nothing games.
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Post by bandage on Jun 20, 2006 8:44:48 GMT
It's a bit frustrating really how they've organised the tournament that there are so many nothing games. As far as I know it isn't necessarily the top two seeds playing last - it just happened that way. When all the teams were drawn each team was also assigned a ball which decided what position in the group they'd be with say 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 first and so on. It just happened that a load of the big games came out to play last. If you remember the last WC England vs Argentina was early on. In this one you only really had Germany/Poland and Swiss/France early and they didn't really set the pulse racing. It's particularly frustrating there's nothing on the Argentina/Holland game. |
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Post by steamboatsam on Jun 20, 2006 8:49:39 GMT
i think myself and bandage had a discussion about this on saturday but i can't remeber cos we were incredibly drunk; i pointed out that all the top teams seem to be playing eachother in the last game and i believe he responded that it was purely coincidence. Anybody know how the fixtures were made as it seems like FIFA were trying to ensure the top seeds went through, in case a repeat of 2002 occurred. i.e. if say Mexico & Portugal met in game 1 and Mexico won, Portugal could shit temselves and lose to Angola/Iran and end up being dumped out.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 20, 2006 9:02:36 GMT
I think the fixture orders were drawn alright so they are random. However the groups are not an open seeded draw like they used to be. The eight seeds are determined based on a formula FIFA concocted to ensure Germany would be a seed and USA would not - i.e. they abandoned their FIFA rankings. Then everyone else was allocated to groups based on geographical criteria - one from each geographical pot. That's what resulted in the likes of Tunisia and Saudi Arabia being in the same group. In the past most of the qualifier battles were between 2nd and 3rd seeds but in a lot of cases this year there is a big gulf between those teams.
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Post by bandage on Jun 20, 2006 9:09:55 GMT
No I’m fairly definite on this. The four country names are drawn out – 1st seed, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Then they draw out a number for the first seed (say 3 and they take this position in the group). Then when all the teams are assigned a number it just goes like 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3, 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 4, 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4. It’s only the media then who publish the groups in the order of 1st seed, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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Post by therock67 on Jun 20, 2006 9:15:41 GMT
There aren't 4 groups of seedings - there are top seeds and then 3 broad continental groupings: Europe, Asia/Africa, South America. No group can have 3 European teams in it anymore (unlike our groups in Italia 90 or USA 94 for example).
You are right in saying that the order of fixtures is determined by a draw though. Isn't that what I was saying too?
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Post by bandage on Jun 20, 2006 12:19:26 GMT
You are right in saying that the order of fixtures is determined by a draw though. Isn't that what I was saying too? Yeah both saying the same thing re order of fixtures - didn't know about the limit on teams from the same continent though. Took Ecuador like Sam mentioned as 7/1 is superb value considering how well they played in each game. Kind of covered myself (not really though) with a ridiculous Germany, Poland, Paraguay, Draw accumulator. It's like I'm going in and giving money to the bookies. Finally went for Larsson and Podolski for first scorer. I shipped Poldi out of my fantasy team but I'm still showing a little faith in him. Klinsmann will probably drop him though. |
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 13:45:41 GMT
Put a crazy €110 on Spain to win by two goals last night.
It was 10 to 11 and man was I lucky to get away with that one!
Have a nice few bob in my paddypower account now. Should probably try to withdraw some but I usually just end up giving it back to the bookies!
Might put a few quid on Equador also. 7 to 1 is very attractive. As an outside bet will put a euro on four draws today. Returns €120 so worth a bet imo. My other quadruple for the day is Draw, Poland, Draw, Paraguay. Its 30 to 1 so will put a few quid on that too. The prdictions for these games is a complete lottery so wont be betting the house on any game. Think I'll put a bet on Ljungberg for first goal scorer at 11 to 1 too.
DT
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 13:56:35 GMT
Lads whats the deal with the each way bet on first goal scorer? I see it is a third of the odds. Do you get that if you player scores but its not the first goal?
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 14:04:48 GMT
Bollox, German Goal. 4 minutes Klose
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 20, 2006 14:09:25 GMT
It has to be one of the first 3 goals in the match. Had 25euro on Klose @ 7-2!
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Post by whyohwhy on Jun 20, 2006 14:29:20 GMT
It has to be one of the first 3 goals in the match. Had 25euro on Klose @ 7-2! €€€€€€€€€€€€€€nice one €€€€€€€€€€€€€€, 7-2 seem ridiculously long odds for him? |
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 14:44:49 GMT
Another goal for Klose. Looking like he could be in with a shout for the golden boot if he keeps this up
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 20, 2006 14:48:49 GMT
He could run riot today but according to reports the Germans are being quite sloppy.
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 14:51:41 GMT
He could run riot today but according to reports the Germans are being quite sloppy. Yea watching it here. Put the study on the long finger once again today! Equador don't look up to much. Hopefully they'll make more of a game of it in the second half but if not Klose could definitely be in for a couple more. |
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pagey
Joe Brolly
Posts: 102
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Post by pagey on Jun 20, 2006 15:04:18 GMT
Plenty of time for studying! Put a wee bet on T&T to win tonight at 3-1. I hope that they go out there and go for the win from the start, as they need to win by 2 goals. I will have a lot of respect for them if they do that because England are well capable of beating the Swedes.
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Post by timofte on Jun 20, 2006 15:15:04 GMT
This is the bet I went for in the end: The following teams to qualify from their groups as a sixfold accumulator: Sweden Argentina Mexico Italy France Spain They were all odds on so together they only give me a little better than 2 to 1, but I put €50 on it. Worth a bet I thought but now Sweden look like they could be the one to slip up for me. All going well though and its a nice 100 bucks in the skyrocket. I hope T&T don't squeeze through as I need Sweden to qualify as per bet above. France look like the team that could ruin that one on me now. Def think it will be a draw between England and Sweeden tonight. T&T are capable of wining tonight but I'd say if they do it will only be by the odd goal. DT |
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