Weekend Flutter

[timofte]

Thanks for that Rock. Interesting stuff. Thought it looked too easy. Website itself doesn't give much info on laying bets. I see how you would need a big bank roll to fund a betting strategy like this. Think i'll stick to the normal bets for now but would def like to learn more. Exalt on that email.

DT

[steamboatsam]

France look very tempting at 4/1 with VC to beat Brazil. Brazil are yet to be tested and the only question regarding France is whether they are capable of repeating their performance against Spain.

[bandage]

steamboatsam said:

France look very tempting at 4/1 with VC to beat Brazil. Brazil are yet to be tested and the only question regarding France is whether they are capable of repeating their performance against Spain.

I myself don't see Zidane, Vieira and those lads being able to repeat it. Even Henry's coming out with quotes saying even if they go out against Brazil at least they have proved to the French public that they were united and a team in beating Spain. Can see Ronaldo banging in a few as revenge for 1998 (not giving away hints to my fantasy football team here!) and Brazil raising their game a few notches. Attractive odds nonetheless.

[therock67]

bandage said:

steamboatsam said:

France look very tempting at 4/1 with VC to beat Brazil. Brazil are yet to be tested and the only question regarding France is whether they are capable of repeating their performance against Spain.

I myself don't see Zidane, Vieira and those lads being able to repeat it. Even Henry's coming out with quotes saying even if they go out against Brazil at least they have proved to the French public that they were united and a team in beating Spain. Can see Ronaldo banging in a few as revenge for 1998 (not giving away hints to my fantasy football team here!) and Brazil raising their game a few notches. Attractive odds nonetheless.

I think I might back France at those odds. I was surprised they were 5/2 against a Spanish team that had proven nothing and recommended to thepiedpiper offline that he back them. They're big prices to be offering against a French side that isn't exceptional at the moment but they still have plenty of good players and (potentially) dangerous strikers.

[therock67]

steamboatsam said:

admin said:

Took the liberty of breaking your post into two parts for the purposes of this reply. In reverse order:

2. Correct. Exact same as a normal booking. Thing to look out for with decimal odds is 3.0 equates to 2/1 not 3/1 (it includes the returned stake in the forumla)

1. Afraid not - that would be free money. You would need 710 euro in your account and lay that. Then when you match your 710 you get to keep the 1 euro that you accepted the bet on if the bet doesn't return - otherwise you lose 710 euro. You are offering someone odds of 709/1 in other words.

Laying is really only useful for two circumstances IMHO:

a) you're playing the markets professionally and have huge amounts of capital to put up to win margins on. Laying just one player for example would be silly because you've not hedged your bets. You'd need to lay many outsiders so you get a return for your market but you've also diversified the risk.

b) playing the market.

-Pro's can do this in your phillipousis example above. Say he loses the first game and he drifts to 715 then you might decide to back him with 1 euro. If Phillipousis wins the whole thing then you get to keep 5 euro (pay out 710 and win 715). If he doesn't win the whole thing then you've no gain or no loss so you're guaranteed to break-even or finish on top.

- Amateurs can do this if the price moves significantly enough. For example I backed the Klose/Germany double with 5 euro at 100. This is now available at 10 for example. I could decide to lay 25 euro at 10 because the price has moved to such an extent that I am guaranteed a respectable margin. So two scenarios here:
(i) Klose and Germany win. In this case I pay out 250 euro and win 500 euro so I am up 250 euro.
(ii) Klose and Germany don't win. In this instance I have paid out 5 euro and laid 25 euro so I have a net earnings of 20 euro.

Either way I'm guaranteed a profit. So for professionals with big money and watching every market they can make a fair bit of money. For amateurs you can use it to cash in on a bet once the price has moved to a significant degree.

very interesting stuff on laying bets there Rock.....wouldn't mind learning a bit more about it.....any reading / websites you could recommend for the beginner?

They're just my feelings on the matter and might differ massively from any betting guides. I've never read one (other than for poker) so can't recommend any though I too would be interested in reading more. My brother used to operate a very interesting betfair strategies on draws which he claimed "could never fail" - not sure why he stopped if that was true but I might ask him about it to get the detail.

[bandage]

Can anybody with internet access to bookie sites in work tell me what odds a Wexford double on Sunday are as well as the individual prices for each game? Got them at ridiculous odds to beat KK in 2004 - after watching The Wind That Shakes The Barley last night I'm more sure than ever that we'll take them on Sunday.

[timofte]

bandage said:

Can anybody with internet access to bookie sites in work tell me what odds a Wexford double on Sunday are as well as the individual prices for each game? Got them at ridiculous odds to beat KK in 2004 - after watching The Wind That Shakes The Barley last night I'm more sure than ever that we'll take them on Sunday.

In the Football 13 to 10
In the Hurling 11 to 2
Double c 14 to 1

DT

[therock67]

bandage said:

Can anybody with internet access to bookie sites in work tell me what odds a Wexford double on Sunday are as well as the individual prices for each game? Got them at ridiculous odds to beat KK in 2004 - after watching The Wind That Shakes The Barley last night I'm more sure than ever that we'll take them on Sunday.

Moving ever so slightly off topic for a moment - how was TWTSTB?

[tommymoore]

For anyone who's interested in a non sporting flutter for the w/e here's the Miss Ireland odds which takes place this coming Friday evening in the CityWest hotel:

Sarah Morrissey (Miss After Dark) 4 - 6

Nicolina Devito (Miss A1) 2 - 1

Eleanor Fitzgerald (Miss Limerick) 7 - 1

Linda Breathnach (Miss Galway) 9 - 1

Stephanie Barry (Miss Cork) 12 - 1

Helen Gregg (Miss Waterford) 20 - 1

Edwina O'Connor (Miss Kerry) 20 - 1

Niamh Blythe (Miss Belfast) 20 - 1

Lorraine Turner (Miss Trinity Rooms) 20 - 1

Maria McMahon (Miss Mayo) 20 - 1

Michelle McGrath (Miss O' Shea's) 20 - 1

Anita McLoughlin (Miss Twenty One Club) 25 - 1

Sarah Hogan (Miss Karma Athlone) 25 - 1

Deirdre Morrissey (Miss Tipperary) 25 - 1

Cathy Burns (Miss Waterford Photogenic) 25 - 1

Stacie McCabe (Miss Bondi Beach) 25 - 1

Kelly McDonnell (Miss Clare) 25 - 1

Denise Walsh (Miss Heaven) 33 - 1

Sarah Clohessy (Miss Limerick Photogenic) 33 - 1

Mary Carroll (Miss Centrefield) 40 - 1

Niamh Kiely (Miss Face of Bray) 66 - 1

[steamboatsam]

tommymoore said:

For anyone who's interested in a non sporting flutter for the w/e here's the Miss Ireland odds which takes place this coming Friday evening in the CityWest hotel:

Sarah Morrissey (Miss After Dark) 4 - 6

Nicolina Devito (Miss A1) 2 - 1

Eleanor Fitzgerald (Miss Limerick) 7 - 1

Linda Breathnach (Miss Galway) 9 - 1

Stephanie Barry (Miss Cork) 12 - 1

Helen Gregg (Miss Waterford) 20 - 1

Edwina O'Connor (Miss Kerry) 20 - 1

Niamh Blythe (Miss Belfast) 20 - 1

Lorraine Turner (Miss Trinity Rooms) 20 - 1

Maria McMahon (Miss Mayo) 20 - 1

Michelle McGrath (Miss O' Shea's) 20 - 1

Anita McLoughlin (Miss Twenty One Club) 25 - 1

Sarah Hogan (Miss Karma Athlone) 25 - 1

Deirdre Morrissey (Miss Tipperary) 25 - 1

Cathy Burns (Miss Waterford Photogenic) 25 - 1

Stacie McCabe (Miss Bondi Beach) 25 - 1

Kelly McDonnell (Miss Clare) 25 - 1

Denise Walsh (Miss Heaven) 33 - 1

Sarah Clohessy (Miss Limerick Photogenic) 33 - 1

Mary Carroll (Miss Centrefield) 40 - 1

Niamh Kiely (Miss Face of Bray) 66 - 1

Niamh Kiely must be some munter.....then again "face of Bray" says it all....

[bandage]

After the whole value in betting debate from the other week I’m in a bit of a quandry yet again. Last week I made some money by betting on 6 GAA favourites – think Dublin were longest odds at 8/11. Combined though it worked out at 5/1 and gave me a nice return.

This week with all the qualifier games on in both codes I could pick 5-8 firm enough favourites, bet big and hopefully get a similar return but is there value here? Equally there are some very hard to call games like Waterford-Galway, Offaly-Limerick in hurling and Derry-Kildare, Wexford-Offaly in football. Should you include a combination of these?

I’m in two minds about what to do. I take the point that betting big on favourites doesn’t constitute great value but sometimes there are certain GAA games, e.g. Clare vs Dublin in the hurling on Saturday night that are easy to predict so maybe it’s not necessarily bad value sticking €100-€200 on 4 or 5 strong favourites giving combined odds of about 3/1 rather than sticking something like €20 on an accumulator with the difficult to predict games I mentioned above? Any thoughts?

[humbug]

steamboatsam said:

tommymoore said:

For anyone who's interested in a non sporting flutter for the w/e here's the Miss Ireland odds which takes place this coming Friday evening in the CityWest hotel:

Sarah Morrissey (Miss After Dark) 4 - 6

Nicolina Devito (Miss A1) 2 - 1

Eleanor Fitzgerald (Miss Limerick) 7 - 1

Linda Breathnach (Miss Galway) 9 - 1

Stephanie Barry (Miss Cork) 12 - 1

Helen Gregg (Miss Waterford) 20 - 1

Edwina O'Connor (Miss Kerry) 20 - 1

Niamh Blythe (Miss Belfast) 20 - 1

Lorraine Turner (Miss Trinity Rooms) 20 - 1

Maria McMahon (Miss Mayo) 20 - 1

Michelle McGrath (Miss O' Shea's) 20 - 1

Anita McLoughlin (Miss Twenty One Club) 25 - 1

Sarah Hogan (Miss Karma Athlone) 25 - 1

Deirdre Morrissey (Miss Tipperary) 25 - 1

Cathy Burns (Miss Waterford Photogenic) 25 - 1

Stacie McCabe (Miss Bondi Beach) 25 - 1

Kelly McDonnell (Miss Clare) 25 - 1

Denise Walsh (Miss Heaven) 33 - 1

Sarah Clohessy (Miss Limerick Photogenic) 33 - 1

Mary Carroll (Miss Centrefield) 40 - 1

Niamh Kiely (Miss Face of Bray) 66 - 1

Niamh Kiely must be some munter.....then again "face of Bray" says it all....

I'm backing Miss A1 anyway. Is that the name of the jelly tot what Georgey Burgess rode?

I can confirm that the Face of Bray is indeed a munter.

Munter: what a beautiful word to describe something horrible.

[bandage]

Have gone for a Germany/Italy double at 7/2 today. Think the momentum the German's have built up with home advantage and good performances will make them hard to stop. Italy should be too strong for Ukraine. Also went for Germany at half time and full time at 4/1. Also noted that Portugal are out to 11/4 with England in to evens in Victor Chandler's. Ronaldo is extremely doubtful now apparently but still think they'll take them. Might stick a ton it tomorrow.

Will also leave my GAA bets until tomorrow when I work out what the fook to do.

[bandage]

Here's who I think will win the GAA games this weekend but unsure as to what value there is betting on some of them as many are hard to call. Will probably end up doing an accumulator on a selection of them.

Football:
Wexford to beat Offaly - more attacking flair, stronger squad and will be driven on by a large following eager to see them reach a first final in 50 years.

Derry to beat Kildare - home advantage is crucial here. Derry are without the suspended Enda Muldoon but crucially Dermot Earley appears to be out for Kildare. Derry have put good qualifier runs together in the past also.

Westmeath to beat Limerick - Dessie Dolan's back for the home side and Limerick were appalling against Cork the last day. Seems like Limerick are very flat after missing the boat in Munster over the past few years and can't see them raising themselves for this one.

Meath to beat Roscommon - home advantage is key here too. Roscommon were decent enough against Galway but Meath have had extra recovery time since losing in Leinster and have got back on track by beating Carlow. Their attack with the likes of Geraghty and Sheridan should be too strong for Roscommon.

Longford to beat Tipp - Two class players from smaller counties in Paul Barden and Declan Browne meeting here. Hard to call but going for Longford based on home advantage and the fact that they impressed more in losing to Dublin than Tipp did against Kerry.

Hurling:

Wexford to beat Kilkenny - members should note that I've never backed against Wexford!

Clare to beat Dublin - Clare's strength, size and sheer physicality to tell against Dublin like it has done in recent qualifier meetings.

Offaly to beat Limerick - this is tough to call. Limerick are in dire straits at the moment and have lost their management team and a number of players - they threw in the towel against Clare 2 weeks ago too. Offaly were gutted to lose to Wexford but recovered to narrowly defeat Dublin 6 days later. This may have helped to erase the previous defeat from their system and with the game on in Tullamore they will have the home crowd behind them. Winner will be guaranteed a quarter final place so stakes are high - Offaly to sneak it though.

Galway to beat Waterford - tough to call with the winner avoiding the provincial champions in the last 8. Waterford are starting to get their players back from injury and have home advantage but Galway have the forwards to expose their defensive weaknesses. Galway by 4 or 5.

Westmeath to beat Laois - think Westmeath might build on their defeat of Dublin and respectable showings against Kilkenny and Waterford against Laois who shipped 7 goals against Galway. It would still be a shock if Westmeath win but they do have home advantage and could surprise Laois.

[timofte]

Just checked out my prediction of

Germany
Italy
Portugal
Brazil

as an accumulator and its 26 to 1, might be worth a punt although one of the games is bound to go to extra time. If you back them all to qualify for the next round you get just less than 6 to 1 as an accumulator. I think I might bet on a few different selections and I'm def going to bet big backing Portugal. Not sure whether to risk the 90 min bet or to just go for portugal to qualify on this one. 12 to 5 vs 5 to 4. Will need to think about this a bit more.

DT

[timofte]

I redid my spreadsheet for the quarter finals. There is probably some value in these. Most of the selections I have included tend to favour Germany, Italy, Portugal and Brazil and in fact I assume an Italy win in all 10! Not sure what I'll go for. Probably two or three of these. Most likely numbers 1,3, 6 or 7. To download the spreadsheet click here. Sorry if there are any mistakes. Odds from Paddypower.

DT

Always bet responsibly!

[steamboatsam]

what are people betting on now the world cup is over? i need to win back some losses

[therock67]

I had a winner on the 8-20 at Newmarket last night. - 50/1 shot placed third. I thought le Tour might give me something to bet on but the odds they offer on stage wins are truly dreadful.

[steamboatsam]

had a 3rd place in Bellewstown (where the fook?) last friday @20/1. last minute tip and wasn't sure of the pedigree of the source so only had a sneaky 5 e/w. me of little faith

[humbug]

steamboatsam said:

had a 3rd place in Bellewstown (where the fook?) last friday @20/1. last minute tip and wasn't sure of the pedigree of the source so only had a sneaky 5 e/w. me of little faith

got the same tip sam. had a good cut at it though...30 each way!

[whyohwhy]

What do people make of the British open this weekend.

One of the most open (arf arf) in years, lot depends of Woods form following his bereavement break.

The course is expected to be burned up (by both players and sun), no real bad weather expected, loads of low scores predicted.

Pity Darren Clarkes mind isn't in it cos he's playing some mighty golf the past few weeks (his wife has cancer for those who dont know). McGinley has played himself onto the Ryder cup team again. Harrington aint doing a whole pile.

I have a sneaky feeling Paul Casey will do ok, he's at 40-1 with PP, who are paying out on first 6 places for e/w (shows how open it is). Garcia is in the prediction thread at 40-1 too

Any thoughts?

[bandage]

Europeans just don’t have the ‘balls’ to win majors I think. More comfortable in the team dynamic of the Ryder Cup. I’m sure the stats will probably contradict me. I’d be looking at the likes of Woods, Mickelson (these two are obvious) then others like Furyk and Chad Campbell who have been playing well this year along with rest of the world contenders like Singh and Appleby.

[humbug]

Always tough to pick the winners in golf. I would love to see Montgomerie win it. Think Bjorn will show well. Tim Clark is value though at 50-1 (Paddy Power) and I think I'll have a modest each way on him.

[whyohwhy]

bandage said:

Europeans just don’t have the ‘balls’ to win majors I think. More comfortable in the team dynamic of the Ryder Cup. I’m sure the stats will probably contradict me. I’d be looking at the likes of Woods, Mickelson (these two are obvious) then others like Furyk and Chad Campbell who have been playing well this year along with rest of the world contenders like Singh and Appleby.

Historically the Yanks dont do well in the British open (some notable exceptions apart) generally the style of golf doesnt suit them, they cant handle 'bump and runs' shots, preferring instead to float the ball in, have it land soflty and spin to a stop. That will be nigh impossible with the course this weekend (no rain, hard greens etc etc).

I'd write Mickelson off now, he couldnt hit a fairway to save his life in the last major, so that will be a major handicap here.

Good shout on Appleby and Tim Clark (by hummer) though.

[whyohwhy]

Got a tip ages ago for a horse called 'Firesong' he's running tonight at Kempton @ 20:24.

When i got the tip originally, the tipper said to put the house on him, however he hasn't ran in a while.

He's at about 7-1 now, worth an e/wayer